Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
